11/8/2023 0 Comments Dk metcalf touchdown gif![]() Specifically for receivers, nearly half of all top-12 fantasy seasons since 2012 came from teams that ranked in the top-eight in Adjusted Passing NEP per play. There is a tangible impact on fantasy football production based on team-level efficiency. Naturally, as we'd expect, Lock and Smith are well below those numbers, and Wilson - on a per-play basis - bests the typical output (yet has a success rate closer to par given his playstyle. Nobody came here to find out if Russell Wilson was more efficient than either Smith or Lock, but it's important that we look at just how good Wilson was and how good Smith and Lock have been so that we can adjust our expectations accordingly.īefore I move on, here's a look at their career passing numbers.įor context, the NFL average Passing NEP per drop back in 2021 was 0.11, and the average passing success rate was 47.1%. Numbers above the NFL average are shaded in green. Here is how Wilson, Smith, and Lock have fared in their seasons with at least 100 drop backs in both Passing NEP per drop back and passing success rate (the percentage of drop backs that increased their team's expected scoring) - compared to that season's average. It rewards plays that are above expectation and penalizes those that are below expected. Drew LockĪt numberFire, we rely on a metric called Net Expected Points (NEP), which is our expected points model. What is that going to look like for two fantasy football darlings? Russell Wilson vs. In 2022, the situation is much different.Īfter the Seahawks parted ways with franchise quarterback Russell Wilson, the quarterback room is now headlined by Geno Smith, Drew Lock, and Jacob Eason with Smith the presumptive leader until we hear otherwise. ![]() In recent seasons, the pertinent questions surrounding Seattle Seahawks wide receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have been less about if we should want them on our teams and more about nitpicky things like who we should prefer at their fantasy football draft costs and how much a run-heavy offense will cap their ceilings.
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